Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

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TSR Background

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) venture developed from the UK government-supported TSUNAMI initiative project on seasonal tropical cyclone prediction which ran from October 1998 to June 2000. The TSR consortium comprises experts in modelling and forecasting tropical cyclones, and in insurance and risk management. The TSR industry expertise is drawn from Crawford & Company, a global claims management solutions company. The TSR scientific grouping brings together meteorologists, climatologists and statisticians from UCL and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

 Innovation and Leadership
TSR uses cutting-edge science and technology to develop innovative products to benefit risk awareness and decision making in business, government and society. Examples include: Hurricane Frances clickable image
US hurricane total insured loss contingent on the TSR 1st August forecast. The chance of a large total loss is clearly much higher in those years when the forecast is high. For example, a total hurricane insured loss of $10 bn is eight times more likely to occur when the forecast is high compared to when it is low. Clearly if extra reinsurance cover were purchased in the high forecast years a company's volatility in losses (or risk) would be reduced. (Figure taken from Saunders, Lloyd-Hughes and Hilti (2005)). Probability (in percent) of experiencing 1-min sustained wind speeds of at least tropical storm strength (34kt or 39 mph) from hurricane Frances. The diagram refers to the 69 hours starting at 15:00 GMT on September 1, 2004 when Frances was located north of the Dominican Republic. Click on image for enlargement.
About Tropical Storm Risk

Briefing Document

Email Registrations

Storm Alert
Seasonal Forecasts

Storm Tracker

N Atlantic
NE Pacific
NW Pacific
N Indian
S Indian
SW Pacific

Past Seasonal Forecasts

NW Pacific


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Researched and Developed by Mark Saunders and Frank Roberts
TSR Version 4.1 Copyright © 2018 UCL University College London, UK
Last updated on 2nd January, 2018 12:10 GMT TSR passes W3C HTML 4.01 Quality Assurance